By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98P…which is located approximately 170 NM southwest of Port Moresby, Papa New Guinea
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a low level circulation with flaring convection.
Environmental analysis indicates overall favorable development for tropical cyclone formation with low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, good radial outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in agreement that the system will continue to track eastward and develop within the next 48-72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.