By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P…which is located approximately 55 NM east of Noumea, New Caledonia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows complicated low level features with an exposed and well-defined low level circulation center (llcc) southwest of New Caledonia, and a llcc just east of New Caledonia obscured beneath the more formative and intense convection.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation including robust radial outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in agreement that the system will continue to track east-southeast and intensify over the next 24-48 hours with both llccs expected to merge and consolidate into one identifiable system.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.