By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96P…which is located approximately 307 NM south-southeast of Tonga
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows formative bands wrapping into a low level circulation (llc). There is flaring convection to the eastern periphery of the llc.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development, to include robust poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in agreement that the system will consolidate, continue to track southeastward, and gradually intensify over the next 48-72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.