By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96P…which is located approximately 928 NM southeast of Tonga
According to the JTWC…the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.
satellite imagery shows a fully exposed well-defined low level circulation center with sparse convection in the southeastern periphery.
Environmental analysis indicates unfavorable conditions for development defined by, little outflow aloft, high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, and cool sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 96P will have little to no development as it slowly tracks southward before becoming quasi-stationary.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.