By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 170 NM southwest of Bora-bora
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection along the east-northeast periphery of a weak low level circulation.
Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for development with robust equatorward outflow aloft, low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in general agreement that 91P will track west-southwestward and deepen over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains Low.