By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 103 NM southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection in the eastern and western periphery of an exposed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions for development defined by low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by weak outflow aloft.
Global models are in good agreement that 91P will continue along its north-northwestward track over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains Low.