By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 367 NM east of Niue.
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts convection that is sheared well to the east of a fully exposed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development with poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by moderate to high (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global models are still in general agreement what 91P will continue to track westward over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is down graded to Low.