South Pacific – Invest 91P
Sunday, January 16, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P…which is located approximately 314 NM southwest of Bora-bora

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection in the eastern periphery of a broad low level circulation.

Environmental analysis depicts a favorable environment for development, defined by poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in general agreement that 91P will continue to track westward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to Medium.