By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical cyclone 22S (Halima), is located approximately 388 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
According to the JTWC Warning number 02 sustained winds were 60 knots with gusts to near 75 knots.
Satellite imagery shows medium-sized, elongated, and consolidating system with disorganized and fragmented formative bands feeding into a deepening central convection that is obscuring the low level circulation.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, strong poleward outflow, and warm along-track sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is tracking along the northwest periphery of the ridge to the southeast.
TC Halima will continue on a southwestward track under the ridge to the southeast up to 24 hours. Afterward, it will begin to round the ridge axis and track more southward, then by 72 hours, southeastward.
The favorable conditions will carry through 48 hours and fuel a gradual then rapid intensification to a peak of 85 knots, possibly higher. After 48 hours, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the system down to 60 knots by 120 hours.