By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Jasmine), is located approximately 309 NM south-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar
According to the JTWC Warning number 11, sustained winds were 25 knots with gusts to near 35 knots.
According to Meteo France…during the last hours Jasmine’s pattern has evolved towards a rather sheared pattern in relation with the increase of the deep westerly shear. The last microwave images show an intrusion of dry air in the inner core with an open eyewall in the north western quadrant.
Jasmine’s progressively bends east-southeastward, under the influence of the ridge in its northeast, and the westerly flow on the edge of the mid-latitudes trough. The system is expected to keep this eastward track to the southwest of Madagascar.
The landfall is imminent and should occur in the immediate vicinity of Toliara. From tomorrow Jasmine remnants should be driven by the low level southwesterly flow.
In terms of intensity, environmental conditions should gradually deteriorate today with the increase in westerly shear combined with an intrusion of dry mid-troposphere air.
the system should then rapidly weaken over land. The remnant low could emerge on Wednesday off the southeast coast of Madagascar but should rapidly merge with a cold front in a hostile environment.
Impacts on inhabited lands: the worst weather conditions have started in the Toliara area. An improvement could take shape overnight. Maximum gusts of 130 km/h are possible near the landing area. Heavy rains may give rainfall totals around 100 to 150 mm in a few hours south of the track. A storm surge in the order of 10 to 30 cm may cause flooding in exposed areas with the swells.