By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Jasmine), is located approximately 184 NM north-northwest of Europa Island
According to the JTWC Warning number 3, sustained winds were 50 knots with gusts to near 65 knots.
Satellite imagery depicts a medium-sized system in the Mozambique Channel that has significantly improved as evidenced by a deeper and more symmetrical central convection with warm pixels in the middle, an indication of possible formative eye.
TC Jasmine will continue generally south-southeastward under the steering influence of the ridge to the east. The favorable environment will quickly become unfavorable due to increasing vertical wind shear and the influx of cold dry air in the lower levels, leading to a gradual dissipation to 30 knots by 48 hours.
Around 24 hours, a mid-latitude trough transiting from the southwest will weaken the ridge. This will result in a slow eastward motion due to the weakened steering environment.