By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical cyclone 20S, is located approximately 807 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia, and has tracked west-southwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.
According to the JTWC Warning number 01, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.
Satellite imagery shows a consolidating medium-sized system with formative banding wrapping tighter into an obscured low level circulation under a deepening central convection.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate radial outflow aloft. The cyclone is tracking along the northwest periphery of the ridge to the southeast.
TC 20S will continue on its current generally west-southwestward track throughout the forecast. The favorable environment will carry through 36 hours and fuel a steady intensification to a peak of 50 knots. Afterward, increasing vertical wind shear will offset the other dynamics and erode the system down to 30 knots by 96 hours.