South Indian Ocean – Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 19S (Gombe)
Wednesday, March 16, 2022

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The remnants of Tropical cyclone 19S (Gombe), is located approximately 196 NM northwest of Beira, Mozambique.

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery indicates an elongated band of convection displaced to the south of a low level circulation with deep flaring convection to the northeastern periphery.

Environmental analysis indicates a generally favorable environment with low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures offset by weak diffluent flow aloft. However, proximity to land and dry air entrainment will place a significant barrier to development.

Numerical model guidance indicates the system will track northwestward before dissipating over land.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.