South Indian Ocean – Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 14S
Saturday, March 5, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The remnants of Tropical cyclone 14S, are located approximately 1094 NM southeast of Port Mathurin…in the South Indian Ocean.

According to the JTWC…the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Satellite imagery depicts an elongated and partially exposed low level circulation center with a prominent deformation zone on the poleward edge.

Environmental analysis indicates the conditions for tropical cyclone development are unfavorable with cool sea surface temperatures, dry air dominating the lower levels and high (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear, as 14S is fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.

Global models indicate that 14S will remain embedded in the mid-latitude jet stream and track east-southeast.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 40 to 45 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.