By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 12S (Dumako) is located approximately 270 NM north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius
According to the JTWC Warning number 2, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to near 55 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a compact and irregular system with flaring central convection but no formative rain bands.
Analysis indicates a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures, low-moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and weak poleward upper level outflow. The cyclone is tracking along the northern periphery of a low reflection of the ridge to the south-southeast.
TC 12S will continue on its current track under the steering influence of the ridge. Near 48 hours, a secondary ridge approaching from the southwest will assume steering and drive the system more west-northwestward, making landfall over northern Madagascar before 72 hours.
The marginal environment will, at best, sustain the current intensity as the cyclone tracks over the warm Indian ocean toward northern Madagascar. After 48 hours, cold dry air intrusion and landfall into Madagascar will lead to rapid decay and eventual dissipation by 72 hours.
Given the along-track marginal environment, there is a possibility that TC 12S will dissipate over water before reaching Madagascar.