By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Batsirai)…is located approximately 637 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius…in the South Indian Ocean
According to the JTWC warning number 7…wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots.
Satellite imagery depicts the system has maintained a compact and fairly symmetrical structure with slight improvement in the feeder band wrap and the appearance of a formative eye.
Analysis indicates a highly favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, strong westward outflow, and warm along-track sea surface temperatures in the South Indian Ocean.
TC Batsirai will continue generally westward on its current track under the ridge influence. After 24 hours, a secondary ridge will build from the southwest, assume steering, and drive the cyclone west-northwestward up to 48 hours…afterward, the track will return to a westward trajectory as the ridge recedes eastward.
The favorable environment will fuel a steady intensification, reaching 105 knots by 120 hours, as it passes north of La Reunion Island.