By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98S…which is located approximately 37 NM east of the Cocos Islands, Australia
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a broad low level circulation with flaring convection in the northwestern and western peripheries. In addition, formative banding appears in alignment with the convection.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with fair poleward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that the system remains stationary off the western coast of Sumatra with favorable development over the next 24-36 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is Low.