By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98S…which is located approximately 86 NM south-southwest of Christmas Island, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts deep convection southeast of the main partially exposed low level circulation (llc). The mid and upper levels have recently decoupled from the llc with elongation of the overall structure. Recent scatterometry data indicates winds of up to 30 knots in the eastern semi-circle of the llc.
Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development defined by robust poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate vertical wind shear of 20-25 knots.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 98S will likely intensify to warning criteria and move slightly northwest over the next 24-36 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.