By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98S…which is located approximately 135 NM east of Cocos Island, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts deep convection obscuring an elongated partially exposed low level circulation.
Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for development defined by, near radial aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Due to high vertical wind shear to the south, global models are in strong agreement that invest 98S will have little development as it remains quasi-stationary over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.