By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97S…which is located approximately 597 NM southwest of the Cocos Islands
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts a broad, weakly-organized low-level circulation with flaring deep convection. A color composite microwave image shows weak convective banding wrapping around the periphery of an elongated monsoon structured low level circulation center.
Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with diffluent outflow and (10 knot) vertical wind shear offset by dry air entrainment. Sea surface temperatures are conducive.
Global models are in agreement about the intensification and general southward track of this large system over the next 24-48 hours.
This system is currently being assessed as a monsoon depression with the possibility of consolidating into a tropical cyclone.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.