By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97S…which is located approximately 412 NM east of Antananarivo, Madagascar
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation obscured by flaring convection with fragmented banding beginning to wrap into the disturbance.
Upper level analysis indicates favorable conditions for development to include good outflow aloft, low to moderate vertical wind shear (10-20 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 97S will remain generally quasi-stationary as it steadily intensifies east of Madagascar.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.