By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96S…which is located approximately 455 NM west-northwest of Cocos Islands, Australia
According to the JTWC, animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery, and microwave images display disorganized convection around a broad low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates overall marginal conditions defined by and moderate to high (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by fair outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.
The ECMWF and GFS models are in general agreement on the southward to southwestward track of invest 96s with GFS predicting more aggressive development over the next two days.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.