By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94S…which is located approximately 741 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows deep convection over the western periphery of a partially exposed low level circulation center.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, good equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global numerical models agree that Invest 94s will continue to consolidate and develop as the system tracks southwestward and will reach tropical cyclone warning criteria within the next 24 to 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.