By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94S…which is located approximately 855 NM east of Diego Garcia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows deep convection displaced to the southwestern semi-circle of a developing low level circulation. A scatterometer pass revealed a disorganized and very broad circulation center at the far western end of an east-west oriented trough.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, weak equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global numerical models agree that Invest 94s will continue to consolidate and develop as the system tracks west-southwestward and will reach tropical cyclone warning criteria within the next 48 to 72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded tomedium.