By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P…which is located approximately 81 NM north-northwest of Grove AP, Australia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts cold, persistent convection over the eastern quadrant of a partially exposed, elongated low level circulation (llc). Radar imagery from Grove AP also shows persistent but disorganized convection.
Surface observations from Cape Wessel, approximately 16 NM east-northeast of the center, report
10-15 knot sustained northwesterly winds with 15-20 knot gusts
Environmental analysis shows marginally favorable conditions with pronounced equatorward outflow, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.
GFS and ECMWF indicate no significant intensification over the next two days as the system tracks westward to northwestward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.