By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S…which is located approximately 688 NM east-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a compact system with formative banding feeding into an obscured low level circulation (llc) offset from the main
convection that is sheared equatorward.
Environmental analysis depicts a marginally favorable conditions for development defined by strong westward and equtorward outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, offset by moderate to strong vertical wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement that 93S will track west-southwestward into the northeastern coast of Madagascar as it intensifies over the next 24-60 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.