By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S…which is located approximately 429 NM south-southwest of Christmas Island.
According to the JTWC…animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a completely exposed low level circulation center with weak convection sheared to the south.
The environment is marginal, characterized by warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear and weak outflow aloft.
Global models have backed off significantly in terms of the potential for tropical cyclone development from this system, with the majority now indicating relatively small probabilities for the system reaching tropical storm strength.
The remnant circulation will however remain well defined for the near term and is expected to transit generally westward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.