By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S…which is located approximately 919 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows organized convective banding wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center.
The environment is conducive for tropical cyclone development with low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and moderate poleward outflow.
Models agree that the system will track east, but intensification and consolidation is
complicated as 93S will have to compete with its twin system, TC 14S (Vernon). There is a brief window for 93S to intensify and reach 35 knots as the two storms begin to dance.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.