By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S…which is located approximately 356 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia.
South Indian Ocean:
According to the JTWC…the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude features.
satellite imagery shows a broad, disorganized system with deep convection sheared to the east due to moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. A color composite microwave image reveals shallow banding wrapping into a broad, weakly-defined low-level circulation with the bulk of the deep convection displaced east.
Environmental analysis shows that the invest is in a favorable area for development defined by radial outflow, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models indicate this subtropical system will slowly track southeastward over northwest Australia over the next two days with gradual weakening.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.