By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92B…which is located approximately 179 NM south of Port Blair.
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts deep but disorganized convection wrapping around a broad, weak low level circulation.
Environmental analysis shows the invest is in a marginally favorable environment for development defined by fair equatorward outflow, moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global model guidance is in good agreement that 92B will track north-northwestward over the next 48-72 hours and gradually organize.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.