By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92B…which is located approximately 179 NM south of Port Blair.
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts deep but broad disorganized convection associated with a low level circulation.
Environmental analysis shows the invest is in a favorable environment for development defined by fair poleward outflow, moderate (15-20kts) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global model guidance is in good agreement that 92B will track northwestward over the next 48 hours and gradually organize.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22 to 28 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.