South Indian Ocean – Invest 90S
Friday, March 11, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90S…which is located approximately 191 NM east of Christmas Island

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows a broad, elongated system with consolidating low level circulation (llc) obscured by flaring convection with formative, albeit fragmented banding, beginning to wrap into the llc.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in a favorable area for development with low vertical wind shear (<15kts), good outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 90S will continue to track westward before making a turn to the southwest as it steadily intensifies. However, UKMET and JGSM disagree with the rate at which 90S will intensify over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.