By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90S…which is located approximately 297 NM south-southeast of Jakarta, Indonesia
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows consolidating convection overhead a low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development defined by, strong radial outflow aloft, low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 90S will generally track west-southwestward, however they are split on intensification with ECMWF showing slower development over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remainsmedium.