Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Nyatoh)…is located approximately 277 NM north-northwest of Yap

 

North Eastern Pacific / North Central Pacific

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Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

 

North Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Nyatoh) 

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/27W_tracks_latest.png

According to the JTWC warning number 7, wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots.

Satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system with strong radial outflow as well as a robust poleward outflow channel and sustained convection which has further deepened over the past six hours.

Tropical storm 27W will begin to track northwestward within the next 24 hours, before beginning a more northward track as it rounds the subtropical ridge axis around 36 to 48 hours. After 48 hours, the system will begin to accelerate northeastward under the influence of a deep mid-latitude trough passing to the north.

Due to increasingly robust outflow paired with highly favorable ocean heat content and low wind shear, TS 27W will undergo a period of rapid intensification from 12 to 36 hours. The current forecast peaks the intensity at 95 knots at 48 however, however, it is likely that the system will reach 105 knots sometime between 48 and 72 hours.

Afterwards, increasing wind shear from the mid-latitude trough to the north will begin to weaken the system to 85 knots by 72 hours. In addition to weakening the system, the wind shear from the mid-latitude trough is expected to initiate a decoupling process for the circulation. This is expected to occur after 96 hours, with the remaining low level circulation, now under the influence of low level steering features, being driven southwestward.

 

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94W_tracks_latest.png

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 131 NM north-northeast of Phuket, Thailand.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a fairly disorganized low-level circulation, with a microwave image depicting most of the convection displaced to the southeast.

Environmental analysis indicates that invest 94W is in a marginally favorable environment, defined by good poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures, although offset by moderate to high (20-25 knot) wind shear.

Global models are in agreement invest 94W will track over Thailand and decrease in intensity, although will reorganize in the Andaman Sea by 48 hours. Afterwards, the system will track west-northwestward and intensify in the Bay of Bengal, and then recurve to the north-northeast tracking near the eastern coast of India.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

North Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

 

South Indian Ocean

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/92S_tracks_latest.png

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S…located approximately 252 NM west-southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows broad convection surrounding a partially exposed low level circulation. A recent scatterometer pass shows a defined circulation with 20 knot winds offset to the north.

Environmental analysis indicates that the system is in a marginally favorable environment for development with strong equatorward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high (25-30 knot) wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that 92S will consolidate and track southeastward over the next 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble being the most aggressive.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

Arabian Sea

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC