Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Monday, November 29, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 27W…is located approximately 323 NM west of Navsta Guam

 

North Eastern Pacific / North Central Pacific

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Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

 

North Western Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 27W 

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According to the JTWC warning number 3, wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.

Satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system with improved convective banding wrapping into a ragged low-level circulation center.

With the exception of the eastern quadrant, outflow is vigorous with poleward outflow enhanced by strong westerly flow to the north. Additionally, wind shear is low.

TD 27W is forecast to track west-northwestward through 36 hours under the steering influence of the ridge positioned to the north. After 36 hours, a deep mid-latitude trough is forecast to dig into the East China Sea, which will weaken the ridge and realign it to a more poleward configuration.

As the system turns more poleward between 36 to 48 hours, it is expected to slow as it encounters a strong northeast surge event. Then gradually accelerate north-northeastward as the surge event weakens by 72 hours.

Rapid intensification is anticipated after 48 hours, due to strong poleward outflow into the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. The system should peak at 115 knots by 72 hours, due to very favorable environmental conditions.

After 72 hours, TD 27W will track north-northeastward as it tracks along the western periphery of the ridge through 120 hours. After 72 hours, steady weakening will occur as wind shear increases to 25 to 30 knots.

 

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There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 192 NM southwest of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a a broad but slowly consolidating low level circulation. A microwave image reveals improved deep convective banding over the southern semicircle.

Upper-level analysis indicates that the system is in a marginally favorable environment defined by low to moderate wind shear, and good poleward outflow. Additionally, warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for development.

The bulk of the global models are in general agreement regarding the westward track of 94W across the Strait of Malacca into the Bay of Bengal, with significant development in the Andaman Sea. The ECMWF deterministic model, however, indicates slower development and a weaker system.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

North Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

 

South Indian Ocean

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There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92S…located approximately 256 NM west-southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows broad convection surrounding a partially exposed low level circulation. A recent scatterometer pass shows a defined circulation with 20 knot winds offset to the north.

Environmental analysis indicates that the system is in a marginally favorable environment for development with strong equatorward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high (25-30 knot) wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that 92S will consolidate and track southeastward over the next 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble being the most aggressive.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Arabian Sea

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC