Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Sunday, November 28, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There are no active tropical cyclones

 

North Eastern Pacific / North Central Pacific

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Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

North Western Pacific

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There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93W…located approximately 173 NM south-southeast of Guam.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a disjointed patch of convection on the northern periphery of a tropical wave. A partial image reveals 15-20 knot winds north of the wave cusp while as revealing sharp cyclonic turning to the west of the wave axis. There is also some weak return flow evident in animated visible imagery…and as of yet there is no clear low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates an overall favorable environment for development with low to moderate (05-15 knot) wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and good poleward outflow.

While there is no closed isobar or closed low level center at this time, global models are in agreement that a closed circulation center will develop in the northern cusp of the tropical wave within the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by rapid consolidation and intensification in
the 24 hours following. 93W will generally track to the northwest over the next 48 hours and develop like a house on fire.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94W_tracks_latest.png

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94W…located approximately 251 NM south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad and weakly defined low level circulation with turning in the upper levels, in addition to broad, fragmented convective banding and no discrete low level circulation center.

Upper-level analysis indicates that the system is in a marginally favorable environment defined by low to moderate wind shear, moderate divergence aloft and pronounced poleward outflow. Additionally warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for development.

The bulk of the global models are in general agreement regarding the westward track of 94W across the strait of Malacca into the Bay of Bengal with significant development in the Andaman Sea. The ECMWF deterministic model, however, indicates slower development and a weaker system.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

North Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

South Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

Arabian Sea

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC