Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There are no active tropical cyclones

 

North Eastern Pacific / North Central Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/07/1800x1080.jpg

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

North Western Pacific

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/wpac/ir4-l.gif

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

South Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

 

Model Forecast Tracks

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S…located approximately 255 NM west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts scattered flaring convection around the southern periphery of a partially exposed low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates marginal conditions for development with good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high wind shear (20-25 knots).

Global models are in good agreement that the system will track west-southwest and will marginally develop with the GFS being the most aggressive.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

Arabian Sea

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC