Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Paddy)…is located 216 NM south-southeast of Christmas Island, Australia

 

North Eastern Pacific / North Central Pacific

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Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

North Western Pacific

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No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Paddy)

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 8)

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts flaring, disorganized deep convection over a partially-exposed low-level circulation. A microwave image indicates a broad, weakly-defined low-level circulation center with limited deep convection sheared over the southern quadrant.

Environmental conditions are marginal with robust poleward outflow and low wind shear offset by significant mid-level dry air entrainment. Sea surface temperatures are conducive.

TC 01S is forecast to meander slowly westward along the northern periphery of the low-to mid-level ridge through the forecast period.

The system has struggled to consolidate due, largely, to the presence of significant mid-level dry air. TC 01S should continue to steadily weaken due to dry air entrainment as
well as weak outflow aloft, and should dissipate by 36 hours.

 

Model Forecast Tracks

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S…located approximately 291 NM south-southeast of Christmas Island, Australia

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection around the southern periphery of a partially exposed low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicate marginal conditions for development with good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by moderate to high wind shear (15-25 knots).

Global models are in good agreement that the system will track west-southwest and will marginally develop with gfs being the most aggressive.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22-28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Arabian Sea

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC