Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There are no active tropical cyclones

 

North Eastern Pacific / North Central Pacific

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Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

 

North Western Pacific

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No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

 

North Indian Ocean

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92B…located approximately 242 NM southeast of Chennai, India

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a large cluster of persistent deep convection over the western semicircle. A color composite microwave image reveals a weakly defined low-level circulation with disorganized deep convection sheared to
the west….and an elongated circulation with 15 to 20 knot winds over the northern semicircle.

Environmental conditions are marginal with moderate to strong (20-30 knots) easterly wind shear offset somewhat by diffluence aloft.

Global models indicate a west-northwestward track with slow development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

South Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

Arabian Sea

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93A…located approximately 237 NM southwest of Mumbai, India

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a poorly organized low level circulation with most of the convection sheared to the northwestern periphery. Fragmented banding wrapping into a poorly organized low level circulation, with most of the convection sheared to the northwestern periphery.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low to moderate (10 to 20 knot) wind shear, vigorous poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. Additionally, dry air entrainment in the mid-to-upper levels is hindering development.

Global models are in agreement that invest 93A will see minimal development as it tracks west-northwestward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.