Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Thursday, December 9, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Teratai)…is located approximately 284 NM southwest of Christmas Island, Australia – Final Warning

 

Northwest Pacific

20211209.141000.WP952021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.15kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95W_tracks_latest.png

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95W…located approximately 440 NM southeast of Yap

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery displays flaring convection wrapping into a broad low level circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals that the circulation is in an area of marginally favorable conditions defined by fair poleward outflow, low to moderate wind shear, offset by warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that invest 95W will track westward and develop over the next 24-48 hours however, the models disagree on the time 95w will reach tropical depression strength with GFS presenting the most aggressive forecast.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Southwest Pacific

20211209.143000.SH932022.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93P_tracks_latest.png

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93P…located approximately 250 NM west-southwest of Honiara, Solomon Islands.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery displays disorganized flaring convection wrapping into
a broad low level circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals that the circulation is in an area of marginally favorable development defined by warm sea surface temperatures, and low to moderate wind shear. The outflow is notable with enhanced poleward outflow feeding into the jet stream to the south.

Global models are in agreement that the system will generally track southeastward and continue to develop over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained  surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high..

 

North Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Teratai) – Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02s_090600sair.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02S_tracks_latest.png

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 6) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts shows a weakened central convection that has become more offset from a partially exposed low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates the cyclone has drifted into cooler sea surface temperatures, and strong (25+ knot) relative wind shear, as the upper level winds have become cross-phased with the storm motion.

TC 02S has weakened to below the JTWC warning threshold and is not expected to recover.

 

Arabian Sea

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC