Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical cyclone 03P (Ruby)…is located approximately 276 NM east-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia – Final Warning
Tropical cyclone 28W (Rai)…is located approximately 157 NM northwest of Koror, Palau

 

Northwest Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 28W (Rai)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/28W_150000sair.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/28W_tracks_latest.png

Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 9)

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows that the system has maintained overall convective signature.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, strong outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine sea. The cyclone is tracking along the southern periphery of the ridge to the north.

TS Rai will continue on its current track, making landfall over Surigao, Philippines, just after 48 hours, drag across the archipelago, and exit into the South China Sea shortly after 72 hours.

The favorable environment will fuel gradual then rapid intensification to 95 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, interaction with the Philippine Islands will slightly erode the system to 90 knots as it exits into the South China Sea.

The warm sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea, and continued low vertical wind shear, and good poleward outflow will promote a peak of 105 knots by 96 hours.

Afterward, the influx of cold dry air associated with a northeasterly wind surge in the South China Sea will begin to weaken the system down to 90 knots by 120 hours.

 

Southwest Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 03P (Ruby) – Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/03P_141800sair.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/03P_tracks_latest.png

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 13)

According to the JTWC…satellite imagery depicts the system has continued to elongate and convective tops have warmed as it drifted into colder sea surface temperatures and higher vertical wind shear..

Analysis indicates a marginal environment with strong vertical wind shear, cool sea surface temperatures, and dry air entrainment, offset by strong poleward outflow. The cyclone is tracking along the southwest periphery of the ridge to the northeast.

TC Ruby will continue on its current track under the subtropical ridge to the northeast.

The marginal environment will maintain its current intensity over the next 12 hours. Afterward, the system will weaken and commence subtropical transition as the combined effect of high vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cool sea surface temperatures prevail. By 36 hours, TC Ruby will become a subtropical system.

 

North Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

South Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

Arabian Sea

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC