Tropical Cyclones – Pacific Ocean
Friday, December 10, 2021

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northwest Pacific

20211211.023000.WP962021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.15kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96W_tracks_latest.png

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96W…located approximately 385 NM west-southwest of Chuuk, FSM

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery displays flaring convection surrounding a weak broad low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates a favorable environment for development with strong poleward outflow, low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 96W will follow a westward track as it intensifies.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

Southwest Pacific

20211211.023000.SH932022.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.30kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93P_tracks_latest.png

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93P…located approximately 285 NM west of Honiara, Solomon Islands

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a low-level circulation center with deep convection in the northern periphery. In addition, formative banding wraps into the center to the west and south.

The overall environment for tropical cyclone development is favorable. 93P is currently quasi-stationary and hunkering over an area of very warm sea surface temperatures. Moderate
(20-25 knot) vertical wind shear is currently impeding the consolidation of the vortex. However, robust poleward outflow is providing excellent exhaust.

Global models are in agreement that a slight relaxation of the vertical wind shear will allow 93P to develop into a tropical storm over the next 12-24 hours and track to the south-southeast.

Maximum sustained  surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high..

 

North Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

South Indian Ocean

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

Arabian Sea

No tropical cyclones or areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC