By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
There are no active tropical cyclones
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99P…which is located approximately 272 NM west of Nadi, Fiji
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a well-defined low level circulation center with concentrated convection close to the center.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with fair poleward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in agreement that the system will continue to deepen and track southeastward as it approaches warning criteria.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to Medium.