By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
There are no active tropical cyclones
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99P…which is located approximately 218 NM northwest of Nadi, Fiji
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts flaring convection wrapping into a weekly defined low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development, with radial outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Numerical models indicate 99P will deepen as it travels southwest but remain below warning criteria.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains Low.