Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, December 8, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Northeast Pacific Basin

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season was a below-average Pacific hurricane season. There were 15 tropical cyclones overall, of which all but 2 became named storms. Of the 13 named storms, 5 developed into hurricanes, of which 3 intensified into major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific basin (east of 140°W) and ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in this region of the Pacific Ocean. For the third consecutive year, there were no pre-season tropical cyclones and the season got off to the slowest start of any Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era, with the first eastern Pacific tropical storm, Aletta, not forming until July 4. The final system of the season, Tropical Depression Fourteen‑E, dissipated on November 7.

Several storms impacted land this year. Hurricane Hone dropped very heavy rainfall over the Big Island of Hawaii after passing just offshore at Category 1 strength. The remnants of Hurricane Gilma impacted the islands several days later, though neither cyclone caused significant damage. Tropical Storm Ileana grazed the coast of northwestern Mexico, resulting in flooding and one fatality. Hurricane John made landfall on southern Mexico twice after rapidly intensifying to a Category 3 hurricane, causing 29 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damage. The strongest storm of the season was Hurricane Kristy, which became the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane in a non-El Niño year since Celia in 2010.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 155 NM northeast of Cocos Island.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery continues to depict Invest 91S with a fully exposed llcc with persistent convection sheared to the west of the llcc. Another partial pass reveals 15-20 knots to the north and south of the llcc.

As for the environmental analysis, 91S is in a marginal environment for further development with warm sea surface temperatures offset by weak poleward upper-level outflow and high vertical wind shear of 25-30 knots. Lastly, global deterministic models continue to show the system remaining nearly quasi-stationary, while backing off on the development odds for 91S.

Global deterministic guidance now suggests the circulation isunlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours, and ensemble guidance continues to show a downward trend in the probabilities for development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 675 NM northeast of Mauritius.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts Invest 92S with a partially obscured llcc and persistent convection being sheared from the east, though the llcc has been steadily moving closer to the convective mass. A microwave image shows well-defined low-level banding features wrapping into the llcc, which remains east of the deepest convection.

92S is in a marginally favorable environment for further development
with good poleward and equatorward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high vertical wind shear of 20-25 knots. However, cimss atmospheric motion vector analysis shows the upper-level winds are splitting to the east of 92S, and localized shear near the center is likely lower than the environmental shear.

Lastly, global deterministic models are in agreement that Invest 92S will continue to consolidate over the next 24 hours. Mesoscale intensity guidance indicates that 92S will quickly intensify and reach warning threshold within the next 18 to 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 32 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

>>> There’s a third area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 397 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts Invest 93S with a broad low level circulation (llc) with flaring, persistent convection. A microwave image reveals fragmented, formative banding along the southern periphery of the circulation, with low-level banding features evident in the northern portion of the circulation.

93S is in a marginally favorable environment for further development with good poleward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by a tight gradient of 10-30 knot vertical wind shear.

Lastly, global models indicate that Invest 93S will continue to consolidate over the next 24 hours, with navgem being the most aggressive, reaching warning threshold by 48 hours. As for the ensemble guidance, gefs and ecens are split, with ecens being the most aggressive compared to gefs which shows only very few members forecasting development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.