Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, December 7, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 299 NM northeast of Cocos Island.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed llcc, which has remained nearly quasi-stationary over the past six to twelve hours, with persistent convection sheared off to the west due to strong upper level easterly flow.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment for further development with warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high vertical wind shear of 20-25 knots and weak upper-level poleward outflow.

Global deterministic models have backed off on development considerably over the past couple of runs, with the gfs, ecmwf and navgem models now in agreement that the system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone. Ensemble guidance is mixed, with the gefs showing little in the way of development, while the ecens is a bit more aggressive, having several members which increase the system to minimal tropical storm strength. The system is likely to remain very slow-moving over the next 24 hours, but will eventually head towards the east-southeast and interact with invest 93S in the long term.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 232 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a fully-exposed llcc with disorganized convection sheared to the west due to persistent, high easterly flow aloft.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment for further development with good poleward upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by high northeasterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 knots.

Global deterministic models are in good agreement that Invest 92S will continue tracking westward while slowly consolidating over the next 24 hrs. Gfs and ecmwf are in agreement that the system will steadily intensify but will remain below the warning threshold through the next 48 hours. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the deterministic models on both the track and intensity trends.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.