Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, December 14, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chido) is located approximately 88 NM north-northeast of Nacala, Mozambique

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.=

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Northeast Pacific Basin

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season was a below-average Pacific hurricane season. There were 15 tropical cyclones overall, of which all but 2 became named storms. Of the 13 named storms, 5 developed into hurricanes, of which 3 intensified into major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific basin (east of 140°W) and ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in this region of the Pacific Ocean. For the third consecutive year, there were no pre-season tropical cyclones and the season got off to the slowest start of any Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era, with the first eastern Pacific tropical storm, Aletta, not forming until July 4. The final system of the season, Tropical Depression Fourteen‑E, dissipated on November 7.

Several storms impacted land this year. Hurricane Hone dropped very heavy rainfall over the Big Island of Hawaii after passing just offshore at Category 1 strength. The remnants of Hurricane Gilma impacted the islands several days later, though neither cyclone caused significant damage. Tropical Storm Ileana grazed the coast of northwestern Mexico, resulting in flooding and one fatality. Hurricane John made landfall on southern Mexico twice after rapidly intensifying to a Category 3 hurricane, causing 29 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damage. The strongest storm of the season was Hurricane Kristy, which became the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane in a non-El Niño year since Celia in 2010.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chido)

According to the JTWC Warning number 16, TC 04S had sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts to near 140 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 04S (Chido) with an impressive appearance with a symmetrical eye and very cold cloud tops completely surrounding the eyewall. The appearance has slightly worsened though, with a dimple eye now and a more ragged central dense overcast. The poleward outflow has improved over the past 6 hours as seen in the southwestern quadrant of the system in animated water vapor imagery.

The environment is currently analyzed to be favorable with strong radial outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 04S is forecast to continue tracking generally west-southwestward along the northwestern periphery of the str centered to the southeast through the remainder of the forecast period. Landfall along the northern coast of Mozambique, about 35 NM south of Pemba Bay, is expected in around 18 hours. After making landfall, the system is forecast to continue tracking inland toward the southern tip of Lake Malawi as it dissipates.

Regarding intensity, 04S is expected to maintain its current intensity over the next 12 hours, and possibly slightly intensify, as it approaches the coast due to the strong outflow and very warm sea surface temperatures. After landfall, terrain interaction will quickly erode the vortex causing rapid weakening. Weakening below 35 knots is expected to occur around 36 hours as the system continues to drift west-southwestward.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather that is being referred to as Invest 96W, which is located approximately 471 NM east of Davao, Philippines.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a wave-like feature propagating westward with broad flaring convection. Another image emphasizes the weak nature of 96W with no evident closed circulation at the surface.

Upper-level analysis indicates 96W is in a favorable environment for development with low (10-15 knot) vws, good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Upper air analysis are in agreement that 96W will continue to track generally westward and quickly consolidate near southern Mindanao. Though overall conditions are favorable, the lack of a distinct circulation at this time will serve to limit the development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather that is being referred to as Invest 95P, which is located approximately 544 NM east-southeast of Niue.

Currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts Invest 95P with an asymmetric, elongated wind field with the strongest winds in the southern periphery. A large swath of convection is obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc) and is flowing poleward and eastward away from the system into a strong jet max displaced to the east-southeast.

The current environment is characterized by robust poleward outflow aloft, high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, and borderline sea surface temperatures.

Numerical model guidance agrees that 95P will track further southward over the next couple days with little to no chance for tropical transition.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.