Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, December 12, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chido) is located approximately 510 NM north-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.=

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Northeast Pacific Basin

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season was a below-average Pacific hurricane season. There were 15 tropical cyclones overall, of which all but 2 became named storms. Of the 13 named storms, 5 developed into hurricanes, of which 3 intensified into major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific basin (east of 140°W) and ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in this region of the Pacific Ocean. For the third consecutive year, there were no pre-season tropical cyclones and the season got off to the slowest start of any Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era, with the first eastern Pacific tropical storm, Aletta, not forming until July 4. The final system of the season, Tropical Depression Fourteen‑E, dissipated on November 7.

Several storms impacted land this year. Hurricane Hone dropped very heavy rainfall over the Big Island of Hawaii after passing just offshore at Category 1 strength. The remnants of Hurricane Gilma impacted the islands several days later, though neither cyclone caused significant damage. Tropical Storm Ileana grazed the coast of northwestern Mexico, resulting in flooding and one fatality. Hurricane John made landfall on southern Mexico twice after rapidly intensifying to a Category 3 hurricane, causing 29 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damage. The strongest storm of the season was Hurricane Kristy, which became the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane in a non-El Niño year since Celia in 2010.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chido)

According to the JTWC Warning number 8, TC 04S had sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts to near 140 knots.

Tropical cyclone 04S (Chido) has been observed to undergo extreme rapid intensification over the previous 24 hours, increasing from an intensity of 75 knots to 135 knots over the last day.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts an impressive cyclone, with a 12 NM wide eye-feature, surrounded by continuous deep convection wrapping very tightly around the low-level circulation center (llcc). Eir imagery has continued to show a very symmetric and moderately sized TC, with minimal convective bands outside of the tightly wrapped structure. An animated water vapor (wv) imagery, strong radial outflow aloft has been observed over the last 12 hours, characterized by visible cirriform striations bursting outward from the immediate center.

With regard to the environment, vertical wind shear (vws) has remained low (10-15 knots) over the previous six hours, while sea surface temperatures (sst) remain warm.

TC 04S is forecast to continue tracking generally west-southwestward along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located directly to the south. Between 24 and 36 hours, Chido is expected to move just north of the northern most tip of Madagascar. Following 36 hours, the TC will continue west-southwestward, along the westward extent of the aforementioned ridge building into southern Mozambique. After 48 hours, TC Chido will move anti-cyclonically toward the subtropical ridge axis, making landfall just after 72 hours and north of Nacala, Mozambique. Between 72 and 96 hours, TC 04S is expected to dissipate as the system moves inland.

With regard to intensity, the system is expected to have reached maximum intensity over the last few hours, with its initial weakening phase beginning imminently. With that being said, the TC 04S is forecast to encounter an increase in vws into 48 hours (20-25 knots from the east), eroding the system to 95 knots during its west-southwestward track west of northern Madagascar. Although vws will initially weaken the system, TC Chido is expected to maintain a relatively high intensity of 60 knots just before making landfall after 72 hours. After landfall, the overall intensity will weaken to 30 knots by 96 hours due to interaction with the local terrain.