Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, December 11, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chido) is located approximately 583 NM north of Port Louis, Mauritius

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.=

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Northeast Pacific Basin

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season was a below-average Pacific hurricane season. There were 15 tropical cyclones overall, of which all but 2 became named storms. Of the 13 named storms, 5 developed into hurricanes, of which 3 intensified into major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific basin (east of 140°W) and ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in this region of the Pacific Ocean. For the third consecutive year, there were no pre-season tropical cyclones and the season got off to the slowest start of any Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era, with the first eastern Pacific tropical storm, Aletta, not forming until July 4. The final system of the season, Tropical Depression Fourteen‑E, dissipated on November 7.

Several storms impacted land this year. Hurricane Hone dropped very heavy rainfall over the Big Island of Hawaii after passing just offshore at Category 1 strength. The remnants of Hurricane Gilma impacted the islands several days later, though neither cyclone caused significant damage. Tropical Storm Ileana grazed the coast of northwestern Mexico, resulting in flooding and one fatality. Hurricane John made landfall on southern Mexico twice after rapidly intensifying to a Category 3 hurricane, causing 29 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damage. The strongest storm of the season was Hurricane Kristy, which became the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane in a non-El Niño year since Celia in 2010.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chido)

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, TC 04S had sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts to near 145 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 04S (chido) with a newly developed eye-feature and an increasingly symmetric structure with supportive curved convective banding wrapping neatly around the entirety of the system’s periphery. On animated water vapor imagery, moderate radial outflow has also been observed over the last few hours, bursting outward from the center as convective structures continue to wrap tightly around the aforementioned eye-feature.

The environment has remained largely conducive for further intensification, as vertical wind shear (vws) remains low, between 10-15 knots, and warm sea surface temperatures (sst) continue.

TC 04S is forecast to continue tracking westward through the next 24 hours along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge directly to the south. After 24 hours, the system is expected to begin its west-southwest trek toward the northern tip of Madagascar along the northwest periphery of a westward building ridge. As TC 044 tracks past Madagascar near 72 hours, the system will continue west-southwestward south of Nacala, Mozambique at 100 hours. After 100 hours, the system is forecast to make landfall until the end of the forecast period.

With regard to intensity, a largely conducive environment framed with low vws and warm ssts will allow for rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, increasing intensities from 75 knots to 110 knots. After 24 hours and as the system begins its west-southwest track toward
Madagascar, easterly vws is expected to increase while opportunities for outflow aloft diminish, beginning the initial weakening phase.

Just before 72 hours, interaction with Madagascar’s terrain will further weaken TC 04S to around 70 knots. Following 72 hours, sustained easterly vws from the associated ridging to the south will continue to erode TC Chido through landfall near 100 hours. Following landfall south of Nacala at 100 hours, the system is forecast to dissipate by 120 hours to less than 35 knots.