Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, December 10, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chido) is located approximately 585 NM north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Northeast Pacific Basin

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season was a below-average Pacific hurricane season. There were 15 tropical cyclones overall, of which all but 2 became named storms. Of the 13 named storms, 5 developed into hurricanes, of which 3 intensified into major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific basin (east of 140°W) and ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in this region of the Pacific Ocean. For the third consecutive year, there were no pre-season tropical cyclones and the season got off to the slowest start of any Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era, with the first eastern Pacific tropical storm, Aletta, not forming until July 4. The final system of the season, Tropical Depression Fourteen‑E, dissipated on November 7.

Several storms impacted land this year. Hurricane Hone dropped very heavy rainfall over the Big Island of Hawaii after passing just offshore at Category 1 strength. The remnants of Hurricane Gilma impacted the islands several days later, though neither cyclone caused significant damage. Tropical Storm Ileana grazed the coast of northwestern Mexico, resulting in flooding and one fatality. Hurricane John made landfall on southern Mexico twice after rapidly intensifying to a Category 3 hurricane, causing 29 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damage. The strongest storm of the season was Hurricane Kristy, which became the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane in a non-El Niño year since Celia in 2010.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chido)

According to the JTWC Warning number 3, TC 04S had sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts to near 75 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 04S (Chido) with an improved appearance, but still with an
asymmetrical wind field due to the slightly vertically tilted vortex and easterly shear. Dtronger winds can be seen along the western periphery of the low-level circulation center (llcc). Persistent bursts of deep convection obscure the llcc, with a warm spot recently appearing over the center right around 0600z. The outflow pattern has improved and become more radial over the past 6 hours with cirrus filaments extending outward in all directions.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment for development characterized by the moderate radial outflow aloftand warm sea surface temperatures, offset by the moderate to high (20-25 knot) easterly vertical wind shear.

TC 04S is forecast to continue tracking westward along the northern periphery of the str through 48 hours. After 48 hours, the ridge to the south builds and the system begins to track more west-southwestward along the northeastern periphery of the ridge. The west-southwestward track will then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. Just after 72 hours, 04S is forecast to skirt along the northern tip of Madagascar as it enters the Mozambique Channel and approaches the coast of Mozambique near 120 hours.

Regarding intensity, 04S is forecast to continue intensifying through 48 hours as it becomes vertically aligned. Recent model guidance has depicted a quicker onset of this alignment, allowing for a higher peak intensity. After 48 hours, the environment will begin to worsen as easterly vertical wind shear increases. This will cause 04S to start a weakening trend which will persist throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Additionally, as the system tracks across the northern tip of Madagascar terrain interaction will aid in the weakening of the
vortex. As a result, 04S is forecast to drop to around 35 knots at 120 hours, just off the coast of northern Mozambique.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 120 NM northeast of Cocos Island.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery continues to depict Invest 91S with a fully exposed llcc with persistent convection sheared to the west of the llcc. A partial pass reveals 15-20 knot winds to the
north and south of the llcc.

As for the environmental analysis, 91S is in a marginal environment for further development with warm sea surface temperatures offset by weak poleward upper-level outflow and moderate to high vertical wind shear of 25-30 knots. Lastly, global deterministic models continue to show the system remaining nearly quasi-stationary, while backing off on the development odds for 91S.

Global deterministic guidance now suggests the circulation is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours, and ensemble guidance continues to show a downward trend in the probabilities for development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 340 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia.

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad area of flaring convection, with a consolidating low level circulation center (llcc). Additionally, satellite imagery reveals a partially exposed circulation, with fragmented formative banding slowly consolidating around the llcc.

Environmental analysis reveals that Invest 93S is in a favorable environment for further development with warm sea surface temperatures, good equatorward outflow aloft, and low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 93S will generally track southwestward over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.

>>> There’s a third area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94S, which is located approximately 196 NM northwest of Darwin, Australia.

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad and weakly defined asymmetric circulation, with flaring convection beginning to organize around low level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis reveals that Invest 94S is in a favorable environment for further development with warm sea surface temperatures, good equatorward outflow aloft, and low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots).

Global models are expecting the system to generally track southwestward over the next 48 hours as the system continues to intensify.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.